Perspectives of Lake Modelling towards Predicting Reaction to Throphic Change

Two major points of view prevail in modelling aquatic ecosystems. For practitioners, the key question in modelling aquatic ecosystems is how well models describe system reactions to changes – particularly trophic change and climate change – and in consequence, how useful models are for predicting system responses and for informing water-body management. For researchers, the modelling objective is to investigate functional interactions between ecosystem components, to understand complex causalities and to identify knowledge gaps to close with further lab and field work. Ideally, successful modelling should address both purposes. A need for more intensive communication between modellers of both groups, as well as other model users, was identified at a modellers’ workshop organised by the project “OLIGO” in autumn 2005. OLIGO (2003-2007) was a project of the Berlin Centre of Competence for Water (KWB), executed by researchers of the Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) and the Berliner Wasserbetriebe (BWB) and funded by Veolia Water. Following up on the recommendation of this workshop and in the context of finalising this project, UBA together with KWB organised a 2-day workshop in Berlin, 8-9 November 2007. The workshop was hosted by the Berliner Wasserbetriebe and brought together 60 modellers and model users from 6 countries. The workshop aimed to consolidate and document the state of the art in modelling water quality in reaction to nutrient load or climate change, to discuss how well current lake and reservoir models can support and inform decision-makers, including dealing with the uncertainty of model predictions, and to explore future perspectives and needs for the development of models.

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